Rabobank’s latest quarterly report paints a “two-track” picture of the global pork market: although prices will remain constrained by supply-demand imbalances in the short term, the market is building momentum for a recovery as capacity expansion nears its end.
1. Supply Side: Efficiency Gains vs. Capacity Reduction
Global pork production growth is primarily driven by improvements in production efficiency, as producers focus on reducing costs and boosting efficiency. However, structural divergence is intensifying:
China: The benefits of capacity expansion over the past five years are still being realized, but a key turning point lies in the continued decline in the breeding sow herd. Rabobank expects this shift to begin having a substantial impact on live hog supply starting in the mid-to-late third quarter of this year.
Europe: The African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak in Spain has restricted exports, causing large volumes of pork to be redirected to the domestic market and exacerbating the regional supply surplus.
North America: Supply has increased slightly, and the market is awaiting a recovery on the demand side.
2. Demand Side: Weakness Limits the Scope of a Rebound
In addition to supply pressures, major global consumer markets are showing weakness. This is particularly true for the Chinese market: although supply is expected to contract, weak domestic demand will limit the extent of price recovery. Substantial improvement in the North American market is not expected until the fourth quarter.
3. Trade Landscape: The Old Order Is Eroding, and New Players Are Rising
Although global pork trade volumes remain stable overall, trade flows are being reshaped:
Exports: The EU’s market share is shrinking, and Brazil is rapidly filling the gap, expanding its global influence.
Imports: Due to domestic oversupply and anti-dumping measures, China’s pork imports from the EU plummeted by 29% in the first five months; meanwhile, Mexico and the Philippines have significantly increased their purchases, becoming new growth drivers for demand. The Philippines’ recent lifting of its nationwide ban on Spanish pork has also introduced new variables into the market.
Outlook: Rabobank warns that uncertainties surrounding animal diseases, geopolitics, and trade policies will keep international pork trade highly volatile in the second half of 2026. Market participants will need to find a new equilibrium amid this turbulence.
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1. Supply Side: Efficiency Gains vs. Capacity Reduction
Global pork production growth is primarily driven by improvements in production efficiency, as producers focus on reducing costs and boosting efficiency. However, structural divergence is intensifying:
China: The benefits of capacity expansion over the past five years are still being realized, but a key turning point lies in the continued decline in the breeding sow herd. Rabobank expects this shift to begin having a substantial impact on live hog supply starting in the mid-to-late third quarter of this year.
Europe: The African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak in Spain has restricted exports, causing large volumes of pork to be redirected to the domestic market and exacerbating the regional supply surplus.
North America: Supply has increased slightly, and the market is awaiting a recovery on the demand side.
2. Demand Side: Weakness Limits the Scope of a Rebound
In addition to supply pressures, major global consumer markets are showing weakness. This is particularly true for the Chinese market: although supply is expected to contract, weak domestic demand will limit the extent of price recovery. Substantial improvement in the North American market is not expected until the fourth quarter.
3. Trade Landscape: The Old Order Is Eroding, and New Players Are Rising
Although global pork trade volumes remain stable overall, trade flows are being reshaped:
Exports: The EU’s market share is shrinking, and Brazil is rapidly filling the gap, expanding its global influence.
Imports: Due to domestic oversupply and anti-dumping measures, China’s pork imports from the EU plummeted by 29% in the first five months; meanwhile, Mexico and the Philippines have significantly increased their purchases, becoming new growth drivers for demand. The Philippines’ recent lifting of its nationwide ban on Spanish pork has also introduced new variables into the market.
Outlook: Rabobank warns that uncertainties surrounding animal diseases, geopolitics, and trade policies will keep international pork trade highly volatile in the second half of 2026. Market participants will need to find a new equilibrium amid this turbulence.
Disclaimer: Some article content is sourced from the internet. Sources have been clearly cited, and copyright belongs to the original authors. The content is provided for readers’ reference only. If the rights of the original authors have been infringed, please contact us promptly via comment so we may remove the content!