The EU pig market has suffered severe disruption. The key question is what to expect in 2026: will supply tightening due to capacity restrictions translate into price increases, or will other forces prove so potent that prices remain under sustained pressure?
The effects of capacity restrictions are already visible. Taking the Netherlands as an example, production monitoring data from the country's pig farming producer organisation shows weekly slaughterings of 280,944 hogs in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to just 267,704 in the fourth quarter of 2025. Slaughterings are projected to fall further to 245,629 in the second quarter of 2026, compared to 262,151 during the same period in 2025. Erik Stiphout, the organisation's vice-chairman, noted that whether this will lead to a price recovery remains to be seen. Indeed, the market faces significant uncertainties.
Markets outside the EU have also been disrupted. Consequently, increased volumes of pork have had to be sold domestically. High inventories and weak demand made it difficult to sell large quantities of pork profitably last year.
Furthermore, China's anti-dumping duties commenced in September last year. Initially, China imposed tariffs ranging from 20% to 32.7% on Dutch exports. The definitive rates were established in December. Over the next five years, the duty rates for Dutch exports will range between 4.9% and 19.8%, depending on the slaughterhouse.
Consequently, Dutch exports of pork and by-products to China virtually ground to a halt last autumn. In 2025, China imported 1.12 million tonnes of by-products, slightly over half of which originated from the European Union.
In China and other Asian markets, the fifth quarter of pigs (offal, tail, ears, snout, cheeks, and trotters, averaging around 25 kilograms with a price of approximately €1 per kilogram) is highly sought after. This product also finds a market in some African countries, though sales opportunities remain limited in other regions.
Russia increases exports
Whilst EU exports to China declined in 2025, Russia saw a surge in its exports. The nation's export value grew by 60% within a year, reaching €73.8 million. Having only commenced pork exports to China in April 2024, Russia directly entered the top ten suppliers to China by 2025. Last year, China procured pork from seventeen countries.
Currently, three Russian companies hold authorisation to export pork and by-products to China. According to the Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance, applications from a further seven companies are under assessment.
When discussing the importance of exports outside the EU, Stiphoult stated: ‘A significant portion of the price for fattening pigs is realised on the world market.’ At the end of November last year, African swine fever in one of Spain's most important pig-producing regions exerted greater pressure on the internal market in Western Europe.
This resulted in a sharp 14-cent drop in prices during the first week of 2026. Prices continued their slide towards the trough of the pig cycle, a trend already discernible throughout 2025. Pork prices peaked in 2023, with Vion's annual average quotation reaching €2.303 per kilogram (including VAT).
In 2024, Vion's quoted price (excluding VAT) fell to €1.922 per kilogram. This declined further to €1.710 per kilogram in 2025, with the 52nd week quotation standing at €1.35 per kilogram. The opening price for 2026 stands at €1.21 per kilogram. Robert Horst, a pig economist at Wageningen University's Socio-Economic Research Institute, anticipates prices will not fall further.
A price recovery also appears unlikely. Several factors contribute to this outlook. Rabobank's autumn 2025 report indicates that pork production will remain elevated due to stable EU breeding sow stocks, necessitating continued reliance on exports. Beyond Germany, Spain now contributes additional supply to the EU market. For these nations, approximately 40% (530,000 tonnes) of their export volume to non-EU countries has been lost.
Competition from Eastern Europe
Slaughterhouses are particularly feeling the competitive pressure from Eastern Europe. Horst anticipates that the impact of African swine fever in Spain will persist through 2026 and 2027. ‘A genuine price recovery requires a reduction in the EU's breeding sow population.’
The situation in Spain has also led to a decline in piglet exports from the country. Consequently, piglet prices face increased downward pressure. In week 5 of this year, the DCA premium piglet price index stood at €32. Unlike breeding pig farmers, fattening pig producers have not accumulated substantial reserves. Piglet prices are expected to align with fattening pig quotations, remaining at low levels for the time being.
Disclaimer: Some articles and materials are sourced from the internet. Where possible, the source has been indicated. Copyright remains with the original author(s). Content is provided for reference only. Should any infringement of the original author's rights occur, please contact us promptly for removal.
The effects of capacity restrictions are already visible. Taking the Netherlands as an example, production monitoring data from the country's pig farming producer organisation shows weekly slaughterings of 280,944 hogs in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to just 267,704 in the fourth quarter of 2025. Slaughterings are projected to fall further to 245,629 in the second quarter of 2026, compared to 262,151 during the same period in 2025. Erik Stiphout, the organisation's vice-chairman, noted that whether this will lead to a price recovery remains to be seen. Indeed, the market faces significant uncertainties.
Markets outside the EU have also been disrupted. Consequently, increased volumes of pork have had to be sold domestically. High inventories and weak demand made it difficult to sell large quantities of pork profitably last year.
Furthermore, China's anti-dumping duties commenced in September last year. Initially, China imposed tariffs ranging from 20% to 32.7% on Dutch exports. The definitive rates were established in December. Over the next five years, the duty rates for Dutch exports will range between 4.9% and 19.8%, depending on the slaughterhouse.
Consequently, Dutch exports of pork and by-products to China virtually ground to a halt last autumn. In 2025, China imported 1.12 million tonnes of by-products, slightly over half of which originated from the European Union.
In China and other Asian markets, the fifth quarter of pigs (offal, tail, ears, snout, cheeks, and trotters, averaging around 25 kilograms with a price of approximately €1 per kilogram) is highly sought after. This product also finds a market in some African countries, though sales opportunities remain limited in other regions.
Russia increases exports
Whilst EU exports to China declined in 2025, Russia saw a surge in its exports. The nation's export value grew by 60% within a year, reaching €73.8 million. Having only commenced pork exports to China in April 2024, Russia directly entered the top ten suppliers to China by 2025. Last year, China procured pork from seventeen countries.
Currently, three Russian companies hold authorisation to export pork and by-products to China. According to the Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance, applications from a further seven companies are under assessment.
When discussing the importance of exports outside the EU, Stiphoult stated: ‘A significant portion of the price for fattening pigs is realised on the world market.’ At the end of November last year, African swine fever in one of Spain's most important pig-producing regions exerted greater pressure on the internal market in Western Europe.
This resulted in a sharp 14-cent drop in prices during the first week of 2026. Prices continued their slide towards the trough of the pig cycle, a trend already discernible throughout 2025. Pork prices peaked in 2023, with Vion's annual average quotation reaching €2.303 per kilogram (including VAT).
In 2024, Vion's quoted price (excluding VAT) fell to €1.922 per kilogram. This declined further to €1.710 per kilogram in 2025, with the 52nd week quotation standing at €1.35 per kilogram. The opening price for 2026 stands at €1.21 per kilogram. Robert Horst, a pig economist at Wageningen University's Socio-Economic Research Institute, anticipates prices will not fall further.
A price recovery also appears unlikely. Several factors contribute to this outlook. Rabobank's autumn 2025 report indicates that pork production will remain elevated due to stable EU breeding sow stocks, necessitating continued reliance on exports. Beyond Germany, Spain now contributes additional supply to the EU market. For these nations, approximately 40% (530,000 tonnes) of their export volume to non-EU countries has been lost.
Competition from Eastern Europe
Slaughterhouses are particularly feeling the competitive pressure from Eastern Europe. Horst anticipates that the impact of African swine fever in Spain will persist through 2026 and 2027. ‘A genuine price recovery requires a reduction in the EU's breeding sow population.’
The situation in Spain has also led to a decline in piglet exports from the country. Consequently, piglet prices face increased downward pressure. In week 5 of this year, the DCA premium piglet price index stood at €32. Unlike breeding pig farmers, fattening pig producers have not accumulated substantial reserves. Piglet prices are expected to align with fattening pig quotations, remaining at low levels for the time being.
Disclaimer: Some articles and materials are sourced from the internet. Where possible, the source has been indicated. Copyright remains with the original author(s). Content is provided for reference only. Should any infringement of the original author's rights occur, please contact us promptly for removal.