Ukrainian officials, analysts and traders said the U.S. Department of Agriculture's August forecast for Ukraine's corn production exceeded domestic expectations because it did not fully take into account the impact of a destructive heat wave.
 
In its supply and demand report on Monday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast Ukraine's corn production at 27.2 million tons in 2024/25, while Ukrainian analysts' estimates ranged from 24 million to 25 million tons.
 
Most parts of Ukraine experienced a heat wave in July, which could lead to a decline in late-season crop yields of about 30%.
 
Private consulting firm ASAP Agri estimates Ukraine's corn production in 2024 at 24.1 million tons, while the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) predicts that corn production may fall to 23.4 million tons.
 
Former Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Nikolay Soski said Ukraine's corn production may be 4 million to 5 million tons lower than the USDA forecast, and soybean production may be 2 million to 2.5 million tons lower than the USDA forecast. He added that only western Ukraine and parts of central Ukraine have avoided serious losses caused by the heat wave.
Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry is likely to release new production forecasts in September.