Reuters reported that China's pork output in the fourth quarter of 2025 rose 7% year-on-year to 15.7 million metric tons. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, pork production from October to December reached its highest level for that quarter since 2018.
Analysts attribute this growth primarily to producers accelerating slaughter to reduce inventories amid overcapacity and downward price pressure. Rabobank noted that accelerated slaughter is a typical market response during periods of price pressure.
Slaughter Rhythms Reveal Growth's True Nature
The current increase in pork production stems not from restored producer confidence or expanded capacity, but rather from sustained profitability pressures, feed cost volatility, and concentrated market releases amid capacity controls. Rising slaughter rates typically reflect risk management decisions rather than market optimism.
This pattern suggests China's output growth may be “front-loaded,” meaning supply is being released prematurely rather than based on sustainable capacity expansion. Historical experience indicates that such concentrated slaughtering, after completing herd adjustments, is often followed by a period of tightening hog supply.
Annual Data and Market Conditions
Throughout 2025, China slaughtered 719.73 million hogs, a 2.4% year-on-year increase. Total pork output reached 59.38 million tons, up 4.1% year-on-year. By the end of December, the national hog inventory stood at 429.67 million head, a marginal 0.5% increase year-on-year.
The current market remains under dual pressure from overcapacity and weak consumer demand. MySteel data shows that the cash price for live hogs at the beginning of this year was 12.6 yuan per kilogram, lower than the 15.4 yuan per kilogram during the same period last year.
Regulatory Measures and Market Outlook
To address overproduction, relevant Chinese authorities have strengthened industry regulation, guiding major enterprises to reduce breeding sow inventories, control market weight around 120 kilograms, and adjust credit and subsidy policies.
Despite these challenges, experts anticipate a recovery in pork prices beginning in late Q2 2026. However, a short-term dip may occur after the Spring Festival. As breeding sow inventories decline and pork output shrinks, a more pronounced rebound is expected from late Q2 to early Q3.
Potential Implications for Global Trade
For North American and global pork exporters, China's production recovery sends mixed signals: increased domestic output may suppress import demand in the sh
ort term, but accelerated marketings and capacity adjustments could reopen import opportunities in the second half of 2026—particularly amid tightening supplies or resurgent disease pressures.
Disclaimer: Some article materials are sourced from the internet. Sources are clearly indicated, and copyright belongs to the original authors. Content is provided for reference only. If any rights of the original authors are infringed, please contact us promptly for removal.
Analysts attribute this growth primarily to producers accelerating slaughter to reduce inventories amid overcapacity and downward price pressure. Rabobank noted that accelerated slaughter is a typical market response during periods of price pressure.
Slaughter Rhythms Reveal Growth's True Nature
The current increase in pork production stems not from restored producer confidence or expanded capacity, but rather from sustained profitability pressures, feed cost volatility, and concentrated market releases amid capacity controls. Rising slaughter rates typically reflect risk management decisions rather than market optimism.
This pattern suggests China's output growth may be “front-loaded,” meaning supply is being released prematurely rather than based on sustainable capacity expansion. Historical experience indicates that such concentrated slaughtering, after completing herd adjustments, is often followed by a period of tightening hog supply.
Annual Data and Market Conditions
Throughout 2025, China slaughtered 719.73 million hogs, a 2.4% year-on-year increase. Total pork output reached 59.38 million tons, up 4.1% year-on-year. By the end of December, the national hog inventory stood at 429.67 million head, a marginal 0.5% increase year-on-year.
The current market remains under dual pressure from overcapacity and weak consumer demand. MySteel data shows that the cash price for live hogs at the beginning of this year was 12.6 yuan per kilogram, lower than the 15.4 yuan per kilogram during the same period last year.
Regulatory Measures and Market Outlook
To address overproduction, relevant Chinese authorities have strengthened industry regulation, guiding major enterprises to reduce breeding sow inventories, control market weight around 120 kilograms, and adjust credit and subsidy policies.
Despite these challenges, experts anticipate a recovery in pork prices beginning in late Q2 2026. However, a short-term dip may occur after the Spring Festival. As breeding sow inventories decline and pork output shrinks, a more pronounced rebound is expected from late Q2 to early Q3.
Potential Implications for Global Trade
For North American and global pork exporters, China's production recovery sends mixed signals: increased domestic output may suppress import demand in the sh
ort term, but accelerated marketings and capacity adjustments could reopen import opportunities in the second half of 2026—particularly amid tightening supplies or resurgent disease pressures.
Disclaimer: Some article materials are sourced from the internet. Sources are clearly indicated, and copyright belongs to the original authors. Content is provided for reference only. If any rights of the original authors are infringed, please contact us promptly for removal.