In its latest global trade report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts that Brazil’s pork exports will grow by 5% in 2025. This growth is due to increased domestic production and strong demand in international markets.
Global situation is favorable for Brazil
In recent years, Brazil has become a competitive pork supplier. This competitiveness continues to help it expand its international market share even in the face of global trade uncertainty.
In 2025, Brazil is expected to expand its market share in more price-sensitive countries as tariffs and sanitary issues change the trade landscape: China has imposed retaliatory tariffs on Canada and the United States and launched an anti-dumping investigation against the European Union (the investigation is scheduled to end in June). In addition, the African swine fever epidemic continues to affect production in Europe, Vietnam, the Philippines and South Korea, which may push up import demand in these markets.
Market diversification strategy
In 2020-2021, China accounted for 55% of Brazil’s pork exports due to the African swine fever epidemic. But by 2024, this proportion has dropped to 18%, mainly due to weaker demand caused by the recovery of domestic production capacity and economic slowdown in China.
Despite the decline in exports to China, Brazil makes up for the loss with 17 new markets (total export destinations exceed 100) in 2024. Among them, exports to the Philippines, Chile, Japan, Singapore, Mexico, South Korea, Argentina and the Dominican Republic stand out. Exports to non-top five markets increased by nearly 20%, highlighting Brazil's ability to quickly adapt to changes in international trade, which will be the key to continued growth in 2025.
International Competitive Advantages
Despite the increase in export prices in 2024, Brazilian pork prices remain lower than those of other major exporters. This advantage allows it to strategically expand markets such as Japan, which is expected to become the world's second largest pork importer (after Mexico) in 2025.
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In 2024, due to currency depreciation and domestic inflation, Japan increased frozen pork imports and reduced fresh meat purchases, which is in line with Brazil's supply conditions (due to sanitary restrictions, Brazil can only export frozen pork to Japan). Brazil's market share in Japan increased by nearly 4%.
Other major importers may also prioritize frozen products under economic pressure, further strengthening Brazil's export growth potential.
Future Outlook
Brazil’s growth in 2025 depends on two factors: its ability to maintain low-cost production and its ability to expand into new markets amid global trade instability.
Despite the expected increase in exports, the United States will remain the world’s largest pork exporter due to product quality and supply stability.
Global situation is favorable for Brazil
In recent years, Brazil has become a competitive pork supplier. This competitiveness continues to help it expand its international market share even in the face of global trade uncertainty.
In 2025, Brazil is expected to expand its market share in more price-sensitive countries as tariffs and sanitary issues change the trade landscape: China has imposed retaliatory tariffs on Canada and the United States and launched an anti-dumping investigation against the European Union (the investigation is scheduled to end in June). In addition, the African swine fever epidemic continues to affect production in Europe, Vietnam, the Philippines and South Korea, which may push up import demand in these markets.
Market diversification strategy
In 2020-2021, China accounted for 55% of Brazil’s pork exports due to the African swine fever epidemic. But by 2024, this proportion has dropped to 18%, mainly due to weaker demand caused by the recovery of domestic production capacity and economic slowdown in China.
Despite the decline in exports to China, Brazil makes up for the loss with 17 new markets (total export destinations exceed 100) in 2024. Among them, exports to the Philippines, Chile, Japan, Singapore, Mexico, South Korea, Argentina and the Dominican Republic stand out. Exports to non-top five markets increased by nearly 20%, highlighting Brazil's ability to quickly adapt to changes in international trade, which will be the key to continued growth in 2025.
International Competitive Advantages
Despite the increase in export prices in 2024, Brazilian pork prices remain lower than those of other major exporters. This advantage allows it to strategically expand markets such as Japan, which is expected to become the world's second largest pork importer (after Mexico) in 2025.
In 2024, due to currency depreciation and domestic inflation, Japan increased frozen pork imports and reduced fresh meat purchases, which is in line with Brazil's supply conditions (due to sanitary restrictions, Brazil can only export frozen pork to Japan). Brazil's market share in Japan increased by nearly 4%.
Other major importers may also prioritize frozen products under economic pressure, further strengthening Brazil's export growth potential.
Future Outlook
Brazil’s growth in 2025 depends on two factors: its ability to maintain low-cost production and its ability to expand into new markets amid global trade instability.
Despite the expected increase in exports, the United States will remain the world’s largest pork exporter due to product quality and supply stability.