Recently, a poultry farm in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, broke out Newcastle disease. The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture has suspended the export of chicken, eggs and other poultry products to China and other countries.
Brazil is my country's largest importer of chicken. According to the General Administration of Customs, in 2023, imported chicken from Brazil will account for 53%/4.8% of my country's total chicken imports/total white-feathered broiler production in my country.
The supply of white-feathered broiler chickens has shrunk year-on-year due to the impact of the previous introduction of breeds. Coupled with the catalysis of the overseas epidemic, the price of white chickens has strong support, and the upward cycle of pig-chicken resonance may have arrived.
This year, the reversal trend of pig prices is clear. As the gap between supply and demand continues to widen, there is considerable room for pig prices to rise; in addition, the industry is more cautious in restocking, which may help to prolong the prosperity of this round of pig cycle. The sector may have entered the right side, and the rise in pig prices may become the main logic of catalysis.