Although risks remain, global pork production is reaching an inflection point as the industry's profitability recovers.
Industry practitioners realize that the supply and demand relationship of pig products is improving, the sow population is gradually slowing down, and the sow population in major regions is stabilizing. In late 2024 or early 2025, it will be difficult for the breeding herd to resume growth, so the supply of pig products will still be limited.
Productivity improvements have boosted production. Improved health of pig herds in regions such as the United States, Canada and China has helped stabilize production and increase pig supply.
Lower feed costs offset the impact of other cost increases, restoring profitability to the pig industry. Global grain and oilseed stocks have increased, reducing feed costs for most farmers. The bumper harvest in South America has further increased global feed stocks, putting more pressure on feed price increases. As the northern hemisphere enters the 2024 spring planting season, the growing conditions of feed crops will continue to be an important factor affecting feed prices.
Pork remains a lower-cost protein choice for consumers. Sales of low-cost products continue to grow significantly, and there is a trend towards more frozen products, which will continue to benefit pork retail, and sales of meat and processed meat will gradually recover.